Given a frame where the pedestrian is entirely out of shot, predict the box they occupy anyway. The first model regressed the four corners directly. Re-describing the same box against the frame edge it hides behind — which side, how far out, how wide, how tall — is what moved the number, because a distance and a width cannot describe an impossible box the way two loose corners can.
The second head, which way they are walking, never became learnable: 0.606 against a 48.3% base rate. It abstains on almost every frame rather than guessing, and that is the honest outcome rather than a missing feature.
One mean box for all 1,692 training frames scores 0.0000, because the boxes sit on both sides. Splitting by side is what creates a floor at all — the same idea the model itself needed.
Repository
- predict-the-mean floor, per side
- 0.4295
- direct regression
- 0.4675
- decomposed targets + TTA
- 0.6096
- organisers’ hidden test set
- 0.626
- predicted left of frame / right of frame
- 229 / 185
- direction: declines to answer
- 407 / 414